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Although there is relatively limited PE                    capacity expansion within SE Asia region,                    import PE supply is expected to increase                    year-on-year amid start-up delays in 2019 and a                    slew of new plants startups in 2020.

2019 expansions saw around 4.5m tonnes of                    additional PE volumes, mainly from the US,                    while 2020 will see approximately another 7.2m                    tonnes of linear low density polyethylene                    (LLDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE)                    grades.

Asia is leading the capacity expansions in                    2020, with more than 4m tonnes of additional                    volumes, mostly for LLDPE and HDPE grades from                    China alone, a big jump from the mere 900,000                    tonnes PE expansion in the country in 2019.

The other bulk of additional volumes will arise                    from emerging PE export regions such as Russia                    and Oman with around 1.5m tonnes/year and                    880,000 tonnes/year production capacity                    respectively, as there is no planned capacity                    additions from the US.

SE Asia market has largely been weighed by                    bearish sentiment amid sluggish end product                    demand, which might continue to plague the                    market in 2020, as demand growth is unable to                    catch up to a surge in supply.

ICIS estimates demand growth for PE in SE Asia                    to average at around 5.5% in 2020, although                    prolonged uncertainty surrounding the China-US                    trade tension and rising environmental concerns                    on plastic waste might undermine the real                    demand.

Most converters might refrain from building up                    on their inventories and opt to rely on their                    contract volumes for their immediate                    requirements should weak market conditions                    persist in 2020.

Traders and stockists are also likely to adopt                    a cautious position and refrain from committing                    to big spot allocations, opting to hold on to                    minimum volumes and ready stock levels.

SE Asian producers, particularly the naphtha                    based and non-integrated PE producers, are                    currently grappling with narrow to negative                    margins, amid weak PE market against relatively                    firm feedstock naphtha and ethylene                    costs.  

Import prices across all PE grades in southeast                    Asia hit new lows in 2019, the lowest levels                    seen since 2008 economic crisis amid supply                    pressure, as the prevalence of US materials                    shakes major markets.

Offers for dutiable US origin PE cargoes,                    particularly for LLDPE and HDPE cargoes were                    consistently around $20-50/tonne lower as                    compared to other offers from regular Saudi,                    Middle East and Indian suppliers.

Dutiable HDPE prices largely softened                    throughout the year, converging and eventually                    falling below LLDPE prices in early December                    2019.

The price gap between the US and Middle East                    origin HDPE cargoes narrowed in recent months                    amid increasing sales pressure, with some                    Middle East producers matching the prices of                    US-origin cargoes.

Vietnam market is fast becoming the biggest                    import market in Asia, apart from China and                    Indonesia, due to its policy of zero duty for                    PE imports.

PE prices in Vietnam remain significantly lower                    as compared to other southeast Asian regions in                    2019, particularly for LDPE and HDPE film.

For LLDPE, weak demand and competitive local                    prices, particularly in Indonesia, curbed                    import demand and suppressed import prices for                    non-dutiable southeast Asian cargoes.

The price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable                    LLDPE cargoes narrowed to a mere $25/tonne CFR                    SE Asia while that for HDPE film remains                    relatively wide at $80/tonne, ICIS data showed                    on 6 December 2019.

The typical price gap between dutiable and                    non-dutiable PE cargoes in SE Asia normally                    reflects the import duties involved for the                    respective grades but has not been the case in                    recent years.

Some naphtha-based producers in SE Asia might                    reduce their overall operating rates further                    amid squeezed margins should feedstock naphtha                    and ethylene costs remains firm in 2020.

Overall outlook for 2020 remains cautious with                    some risk of further downtrend across PE grades                    as increasing supply pressure in a saturated                    market might weigh down on sentiment and curb                    demand further.

Focus article byFelita Widjaja