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SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asian purified terephthalic                    acid (PTA) markets are likely to face a supply                    burden, with China accelerating its expansion                    plans, amid a weak demand outlook.

China will see new capacities adding up to a                    total of 9.6m tonne/year of PTA production by                    the end of 2020.

The degree of capacity expansion within the                    region has slowed considerably in the last two                    years as shown by the chart below.

Healthy margins in the PTA and polyester                    industry in the previous two years had spurred                    investments in new capacities.

The bulk of expansion is expected to come on                    stream in the second half of 2020.

Reliance on PTA imports has since been a                    distance past after the influx of expansions of                    PTA facilities that occurred in 2012.

After the huge expansions that were carried                    out, as seen on the chart above, the net                    imports had drastically declined since.

Going forward, despite the country being                    self-sufficient, China will continue to import                    for re-export business, credit financing, and                    the advantage of credit terms on purchases to                    facilitate cash flow.

Traditionally, Chinese domestic purchases are                    made on a cash on delivery, while imports can                    be purchased by issuing letter of credit.

The battle for the export markets would be                    intense, as China, South Korea, and Taiwan will                    have to compete for market share.

South Korea and Taiwan had been diversifying                    its export destinations, as China moved towards                    self-sufficiency.

There are certain regions that have a huge                    entry of barrier for China, like antidumping                    duties (ADDs) and import duties.

South Korean origin materials has an advantage                    over China for exports to Europe, with the                    on-going free trade agreement between both                    countries.

According to ICIS Supply & Demand database,                    the main export markets for China are Oman,                    Russia and South Africa.

The next biggest import market after China                    would be India. The country imported a total of                    665,511 tonnes in 2018, and imported a total of                    637,085 tonnes from January to September of                    2019.

The biggest challenge for 2020 would be demand.

The global macroeconomic environment outlook                    remains bleak, with majority of GDP growth of                    various countries being adjusted lower, while                    the on-going trade war between US and China                    creates an air of uncertainty.

The GDP growth typically indicates a growth                    rate for downstream polyester demand for a                    country.

In addition, society’s move towards a greener                    and cleaner environment had spurred the                    movement of increase usage of recyclables.

The EU had set out a target that from 2025, PET                    bottles will have to contain at least 25%                    recycled plastic.

Following this movement, Asia is also likely to                    take steps to keep up with the trend, and this                    would reduce the demand for PET, and thus                    reducing the demand for PTA.

In a scenario that supply exceeds demand,                    production margins are likely to face immense                    downward pressure.

As seen from the chart above, the spread                    between feedstock paraxylene (PX) and PTA had                    trended below the typical healthy level in the                    fourth quarter of 2019.

A sustained negative production margin would                    phase out smaller, older, and less efficient                    PTA facilities within the region.

Newer capacities are in a larger production                    scale, average at around a minimum of 1m                    tonne/year of production, compared to older                    units that are below 500,000 tonnes/year.

In Asia, 34% of total nameplate capacities are                    above 1m tonne/year, while 30% are below                    500,000 tonnes/year.

Out of the facilities that are above 1m                    tonne/year, 41% of them are above the capacity                    of 2m tonne/year.

Other than the size of capacities which                    translate to economic of scale, upward and                    downward integration of the facilities would be                    the key to survivability in the current trying                    times.

Focus article by Samuel Wong